Ukraine: What if Vladimir Putin officially declared war on May 9?

Officially in a “special operation” to discredit Ukraine, Russia has not said a word of war since last February 24. However, the crucial May 9 deadline for the Kremlin could amend the papers.

a War is not one According to Vladimir Putin. at “proces distinct“Since February 24, the date of the start of the Russian offensive in UkraineThe Kremlin always refuses to mention the word “war”. However, in the face of Russian military setbacks in Kyiv and with his military maneuvers taking longer than expected, Putin is already considering doing Official statement From the war on May 9.

I made the decision with a special military operation. We will strive to achieve disarmament and disarmament in Ukraine. We do not have in our plans an occupation of Ukrainian lands, nor do we intend to impose anything by force on anyone. – Putin on February 23, 2022.

Why this date?

May 9 marks the surrender of Nazi Germany to Russia in 1945. The anniversary is celebrated every year with great fanfare by the Kremlin, an opportunity for Russia to display its firepower during an important military parade. But also for Putin to give a speech there about the state and the nation’s place in the world.

“This is one of the most unifying events within Russian society,” explains Isabelle Facon, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and a specialist in Russia at Dauphiné.

So it was a symbolic date that was initially to celebrate a possible Russian victory over Ukraine. This will not be the case because of the amazing resistance of the Ukrainians and thanks to the support of the international community in Kyiv with the massive shipment of heavy weapons.

A real declaration of war

but how “to celebrate the hit“For Putin on May 9? According to observers, Russia can make an official declaration of war against the Kyiv regime and Volodymyr Zelensky. As BFMTV reminds us, the declaration of war is recognized in directly international. It corresponds to “a solemn declaration by a national government denoting a state of war between that nation and one or more nations”.

Therefore, a possible military escalation could occur on May 9. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, went somewhat in this direction last weekend in an interview with Italian TV station MediaSet. The latter claimed that Moscow is not trying “End the conflict on this date“.

Escalation of the conflict

A statement that can align with the West’s recent concerns in recent days. The international community is concerned about a Possible escalation of the conflict. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned against changing Putin’s rhetoric.

“We have seen a number of statements from Putin about her transformation into war“It’s a war before agent— which it isn’t — and “Nazis are everywhere,” basically, “It’s not just in Ukraine, NATO is full of Nazis,” he explained on LBC News.

And to continue: “I think he will try Getting out of his “own operation”. He set the stage so he could say “Look, it’s now war against the nazisAnd what I need is more people. I need to More Russian cannon fodderBFMTV reports.

A war economy in Russia?

A note shared by US State Department spokesman Ned Price, who declared on Monday that the Russians had “good reason to believe that the Russians would do everything in their power to use it.” May 9 for advertising purposes.

Such a statement today would allow Putin To commit as many resources as possibleto persuade its inhabitants to participate and, above all, to push the country to it war economy. All of the country’s economic forces would then be redirected to the war effort.

Another advantage, not the least, is that the Russian people accept decrease in purchasing power Because of the war, it has since been announced. A large part of the population to this day cannot bring themselves to see the economy of the entire country in turmoil Because of Western sanctions just a “special operation.” In the case of a real war, the perception would be different.

Another feature of officially declaring war is the creation of Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Founded in 2002. Regional NATO Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, or even Armenia have a duty to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack. way for Russia to get additional military aid.

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