Since February 24, Russia has carried out, in the words of Vladimir Putin, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. With the highly symbolic date of May 9 approaching, Moscow could officially declare war on Ukraine, thus moving to a state of high alert.
On the night of February 23-24, Vladimir Putin launched, in his own words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine:
“I have decided to conduct a special military operation. We will strive to achieve the disarmament and disarmament of Ukraine. We do not have in our plans the occupation of Ukrainian lands, we do not intend to impose anything by force on anyone. I invite you. To take up arms. You can leave the battlefield unhindered. “
Since then, Russia has not officially mentioned the word “war”. And for good reason, if in fact it was a war, no official declaration to that effect was made.
However, the declaration of war is recognized in international law. Corresponds to an official declaration made by a national government denoting a state of war between that nation and one or more other nations.
Military escalation on May 9?
As the date of May 9, the symbol of Nazi Germany’s surrender in 1945, approaches, it is rumored that Russia could officially declare war on Kyiv. May 9 was first declared Victory Day for Putin, and May 9 would not ultimately mark the decision for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, in an interview with Italy’s Mediaset TV on Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that Moscow does not seek to end the conflict in Ukraine by this date.
However, the attack could go up a bit. For a few days, Westerners were worried about a Russian action or announcement no later than May 9. Thus, the British Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, was upset on LBC News:
“We’ve seen a number of statements from Putin about this war turning into a war, ‘It’s a proxy war’ – which it isn’t – and ‘Nazis are everywhere’, basically, ‘It’s not just in Ukraine, NATO is full of Nazis’.”
And to continue on BBC:
“I think he’s going to try to get out of his ‘special operation.’ It paved the way for him to be able to say ‘Look, this is now a war against the Nazis, and what I need is more people.'” I need more Russian cannon fodder.”
US State Department spokesman Ned Price declared Monday that there is “good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything in their power to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes. Ned Price also said he was aware of “speculation that Russia may officially declare war” on May 9.
What an official declaration of war will change
What will the consequences of such a decision? On BFMTV on Tuesday, our defense advisor Jerome Belistrandi and international relations expert Patrick Seuss explained why Putin’s official declaration of war is more than possible.
According to them, such an option would make it possible to mobilize more military forces and, above all, introduce Russia into the war economy.
Patrick Seuss mentions in this regard that approximately 2125 missiles have already been launched in 68 days, and that a decrease was observed at this level. Thus, the adaptation of the economy to the war will reverse this downward trend. This would also make it possible for more men to invest in this field. This is the famous “Russian cannon fodder” mentioned by Ben Wallace in his interview with LBC
As a reminder, Western and Ukrainian officials have estimated that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion began.
Finally, a declaration of war can bolster direct support from some countries for the conflict, notably within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) established in 2002.
This “mini-NATO” consists of other states of Russia, Kazakhstan or even Uzbekistan and Armenia, and specifies in Article 4 of its Charter (similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter devoted to “Collective Defense”), that in the event of an act of aggression against one of the member states, Other countries must provide them with military assistance…or risk a direct extension of the conflict.