Matthews Moraveki, Peter Fiala and Janez Gansa. Boris Johnson. Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. Justin Trudeau. Anthony Blinken or Antonio Guterres. The list of Western leaders who surrendered under the bombs in Ukraine, to which we must add Jill Biden and Angelina Jolie, is growing every week. Missing name. Emmanuel Macron has been very active at the diplomatic level since the beginning of the Russian invasion. An anomaly on the verge of correction, if we believe Etienne de Poncin.
“He is eagerly awaited in Kyiv, he has been invited many times […] I think he plans to go. “The exact date has not been set yet,” the French ambassador to Ukraine told France 2 on Wednesday. How did he explain that the French president, quick to pick up the phone to speak with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, had not yet taken the Republic hawk to appear on the streets of Kyiv?
The need for added value
About Bertrand Badi, a political scientist specializing in international relations who gave him an interview 20 minutes, The decision of such a move takes into account three factors. First, the “symbolic nature of this trip,” which would not have a “tangible effect.” It is clear that Emmanuel Macron will not come to Kyiv with 50 tanks in his bags and his presence will have a “show effect, not a diplomatic building”. “These visits are useless, they do not even support the morale of Ukrainians when you see their daily life,” said the professor emeritus at Science po.
Jean-Louis Borlange, deputy interior minister and head of the foreign affairs committee, agrees that “the trip to Kyiv has become a mandatory formula that has little benefit.” It will therefore be necessary to “know the added value”, both for Ukraine and for the French president, of the trip before scheduling it, explains the parliamentarian for 20 minutes.
Spare Putin and the electorate?
However, the second element of thinking, Emmanuel Macron wants to play a real role in the diplomatic solution. “A kind of Macron’s forte is to put himself forward, when there is a crisis, to present himself as a solution,” smiles Badi. As a result, the head of state wants to stand out but does not risk “disturbing Vladimir Putin”. A premise that will burden the scales? Not according to Jane-Louis Borlange, who’s “No Fear on the Show On site Solidarity with the Ukrainians.
However, the French president has faced a busy schedule since the start of the Russian invasion, especially with the presidential election. “The visit during the campaign could have been interpreted as an internal political maneuver, and it seemed that he was taking advantage of the war,” the deputy said. On the contrary, the chance was almost too good for Bertrand Badi. He asserts that if Emmanuel Macron had brought an “electoral charge” on this trip, he “would have gone there,” evoking the potentially positive image of the “young president under attack.”
The president and his gang
But the more time passes, the more Emmanuel Macron takes another risk: to be the only person among the Western allies who does not go there, thus losing his influence, or even finding himself isolated. Bertrand Badi thought “the possibility of the latter being too heavy for him” and then elaborated on the third element of reasoning. So the visit cannot be long, it remains to determine the appropriate form and moment. “It must be done while France presides over the European Union,” insists Jean-Louis Borlange, who imagines the head of state taking “Charles Michel, Ursula von der Leyen, and even member states like Italy.”
So before the end of June, with the need to “be clear,” so that we don’t go there after, say, Joe Biden. Bertrand Badi’ leans on another play: “Where there is drama, there is a necessary paragraph,” he asserts, imagining “another butch.” The president can also “appear in Odessa, because it seems to be the next battle”, or “pass through Moldova”.
For now, the mystery remains. The president has not made up his mind, and even for the majority deputies, “Emmanuel Macron’s methods are impenetrable,” Jean-Louis Borlange smiles.