Seasonal outlook: towards a hot and windy summer

by REGIS CREPET, meteorologist

The current May 10 update relates to the three months of summer 2022, June, July and August in the French capital. For this important period for tourism and agriculture, our forecast highlights a summer that will be warmer than usual, with rainfall close to average. We can see a wetter weather signature than in the spring with a noticeable stormy development in some places. This trend was already mentioned in the previous bulletin issued on April 10, which makes it possible to express a good overall reliability. However, we note the expected change in weather for August.

Continuing from the first five months of the year, the general meteorological composition should be presented in the summer Job centers are always reversible At the European level, with frequent high pressures (cyclones) centered in northern Europe and low pressures (troughs) over the Mediterranean. This inverted situation is responsible for a drought Continuous, particularly in the northern half of France, where temperatures are generally +1.5°C above average since winter. This trend should continue this summer. In this configuration, the return of storms from June will make a difference and can reduce the severity of the drought in our country. This trend was already mentioned in the previous bulletin issued on April 10, which makes it possible to express a good overall reliability. However, we note the expected change in weather for August. Globally, we note that La Nina is strengthening in the Pacific Ocean and should continue until next fall. Statistically, this factor leads to a stormy summer in France.

June: Very hot weather and thunderstorms

June may be the hottest month of summer. Temperatures are expected to reach +2 ° C above seasonal standards, with a noticeable increase in the north of our country. With the flow often directed towards the south, we can fear the sweltering heat. But, unlike spring, storms will return on an axis that runs most often from the southwest to the northeast, coming from Spain. These thunderstorms can limit the duration of heat waves. Across France, there is still a deficit of about 5% in precipitation, but this deficit will still be most pronounced north of the Loire and in the southeast quadrant, for the most part, away from thunderstorms.

July is hot but windy

The meteorological composition will not change much compared to June, with the same reversal of action centers, between anticyclones located in high latitudes and Central Europe, and stormy low pressures in the Mediterranean. The weather will be about +1.5°C warmer than normal with frequent thunderstorms on the usual axis upwards from the southwest to the northeast. These storms can also affect other areas and give precipitation very close to normal on the hexagonal scale. However, deficits will remain in the northwest and southeast regions, which are regions less affected by storms.

August: the wettest month of summer?

From August, a change in the weather pattern can occur in France with the creation of more turbulent, wetter, but still very warm weather due to the southwesterly flow. In fact, the high pressures will recede towards central Europe, allowing the low pressure flow of the Atlantic Ocean to advance over our country. Under these conditions, precipitation could exceed about 5-10% on the France scale in a fairly homogeneous manner, while temperatures would still be +0.5 to +1°C higher than normal. But this change in weather configuration should be made more reliable in our upcoming updates.

Finally, our seasonal forecast anticipates a hot summer in France, with +1.5°C above the three-month averages. Without being exceptional, this difference is sufficient to allow heat waves to occur, as in 2018 For example, as the summer was very hot, but also very windy. The storms will indeed return in June, which could limit the worsening of the drought observed, particularly from the southwest to the northeast. In addition, thunderstorms can limit the duration and intensity of intense heat waves, which again will be good news. However, the general feeling of this summer will be a heavy and humid atmosphere, which is a real factor for the inconvenience.

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