Why will the hot weather return soon

The heatwave warning was lifted on Tuesday morning: After two weeks of sweltering heat across much of France, the last 13 provinces involved have returned to milder temperatures.

Heat waves in May, June and July…

Temperatures were still close to 40 degrees Celsius in some places on Monday, before a “significant drop” on Tuesday, according to Météo France.

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Since then, it’s been a series of events: an intense June heat wave – a record in maturity – followed almost immediately by a long heat wave, which began before mid-July. Each time, absolute temperature records, often dating back to 2003 or 2019, were smashed. Since the beginning of June, the average temperature in France has been on average 3°C above normal, even outside of heat waves.

In Toulouse, July saw only one day below par, all other days played above average:

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And it’s not over: ‘heatwave’ or not, temperatures will still be very high in most parts of the country. Normal in the middle of summer? Not quite: it would be very clear that it is higher than “seasonal usages”.

Constant heat in the southeast

In Drom and Ardesh provinces, for example, mercury is often around 35°C. Only cold nights compared to recent weeks have Météo-France raised its heatwave alert.

The whole country should already prepare for the return of the scorching heat.

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“There is a lot of hot air, the Sahara, in southern Europe,” Guillaume Séchet, meteorologist and founder of MétéoVilles tells us.

‘Hot and totally dry summer’

“We’re not done with this summer, which is going to be quite hot and dry, and we’re almost certain of that,” he continues. “It is a self-sufficient phenomenon: the Mediterranean is hot, so the hot air from the desert arrives without difficulty, and the air is very dry because the land is very dry,” due to severe and persistent drought.

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The result, according to Guillaume Sechet: “At the beginning of August, we will have very hot weather in most of the Mediterranean.” With, from July 30, more than 35 °C in Nîmes, for example.

July 2022 is very likely to be the driest July since 1958

“July 2022 is likely to be the driest July on record since 1958,” a Météo-France spokesperson said on Tuesday, due to a severe lack of precipitation. More information in this article.

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Again, the same causes will produce the same effects: According to the first predictions, “From August 2 we begin to notice peaks of 40 ° C, even in the northern half of France. We are considering moving north, even beyond our borders, to Holland,” he warns Seshet clouds.

The meteorologist explained to us that this is a phenomenon caused by the rise of the subtropical anticyclone to the Azores, about 1,000 km further north than before. It has been accelerating since 2015…

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There is no water yet…

It is currently impossible to predict the end of this new episode of the heat experiment. But what meteorologists worry about is that it further enhances one of its causes, namely drought.

Almost the entire country is already subject to water use restrictions at an early stage.

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